兩岸是否開放三通（通郵、通航、通商），始終是大陸政策的重大爭議。影響三通政策變動的因素，包括議題性質、兩岸協商、利益團體壓力、政府管制能力，四項因素的互動，決定著兩岸三通的議題設定和政策進程。 其中，通郵議題的技術性高，協商較無爭議，少有利益團體壓力，政府主導能力最高。通航議題的政治性高，協商常有爭議，政府內部分歧，不管是台港續航、台澳航線、兩岸境外航運、台港航運談判，多由外部壓力啟動，兩岸都有路線和政策落差。通商議題的演進，則多為單方決策，少有兩岸協商，但政府管制能力低，往往落後民間，被迫接受既成事實，因此造成路線和政策的更大落差。 利益團體介入三通決策，以通航和通商最顯著。尤其是台港續航和台港航運談判，兩岸利益團體的介入都導致政策方向的變動。通商由於政府管制能力不高，即使提出「戒急用忍」，但成效有限，並未降低兩岸經貿的持續發展。

This study seeks to examine the political logic of three links policy change, including cross-strait communications, navigation, trade and investment. It is argued that three links policies are determined by four major factors: the nature of issue, bilateral negotiation, interest group pressures, and the state’s regulatory capacity. It concludes that communications issues are bilateral, state-directed, technique-oriented, easier for agreement; navigation issues are bilateral, state-directed, security-oriented, susceptible to interest group pressures; trade and investment issues are unilateral, market forces-driven, difficult for state regulation.

兩岸關係;三通;通郵;通航;通商;政策制定;基礎決策;政策視窗;國家安全;兩岸協商;政府管制;利益團體

cross-strait relations; three links; policy making; fundamental decisions; policy window; national security; negotiation; regulation; interest group