目標：本研究以2006年3月台灣地區面臨的禽流感威脅情境為例，檢視台灣民眾對此未知風險是否存有樂觀偏誤的心理，並探討影響樂觀偏誤及預防行為的因素為何。方法：透過電話系統隨機抽樣調查法，本研究於2006年3月下旬完成822份有效樣本，回應率為67.5%。結果：本研究發現，面對禽流感爆發的威脅，受訪民眾存有樂觀偏誤心態；此外，憂慮顯著地預測樂觀偏誤及預防行為，風險知識則顯著地預測預防行為，但其對樂觀偏誤則不具有顯著的預測能力。結論：面對禽流感，樂觀偏誤心理依然存在，但偏誤程度不大。本研究建議，提高民眾的風險危機意識有助減低樂觀偏誤並促使民眾採取預防行為。

Objectives: The current study sought to investigate the phenomenon of optimistic bias regarding the possible deadly threat of avian influenza (AI) in Taiwan. This study also explored the determinants of optimistic bias and precautionary behaviors. Methods: A telephone survey was employed using a systematic random sample of 822 respondents (response rate of 67.5%). Results: The findings of this study indicated that respondents perceived that others were more likely to be infected with AI than themselves (optimistic bias phenomenon). In addition, worry was found to be negatively predictive of optimistic bias and positively predictive of precautionary behavior, while risk knowledge was positively predictive of precautionary behavior, but was not significantly predictive of optimistic bias. Conclusions: While facing the threat of AI, an optimistic bias phenomenon is present among Taiwanese, but is not salient. This study suggests that riskarousal will eliminate the optimistic bias phenomenon and enable respondents to take precautionary actions.

禽流感;樂觀偏誤;風險知識;憂慮;預防行為

Avian influenza, optimistic bias, risk knowledge, worry, precautionary behavior