Vol.39 No.5
/
2020 / 10
/
pp. 465 - 468
要提升生育先落實適齡結婚
To boost birth, marriage first
作者
薛承泰 *
(國立臺灣大學社會學系)
薛承泰 *
國立臺灣大學社會學系
中文摘要
今年的結婚對數1至8月共 77,252對,和去年同期相比,少了7,188對,和2016年同期相比,少了13,738對,四年間減幅達15%。今年結婚對數持續下滑,意味著明年生育狀況可能比今年更差,而後年(2022)是虎年,情況難變好!簡言之,未來三年很可能會連續創生育的新低。 所謂的適齡結婚, 廣義指的應該是20-34歲,由於國人普遍接受高等教育,25 歲之前結婚機會不大,若能在25-29歲結婚,35歲(女性)之前生育的機會就會較高。然而,在人口高齡化少子化趨勢下,帶來社會經濟廣泛的衝擊,年輕人的負擔很可能攀升;如果年輕人薪資偏低(相對於房價),失業風險高,經濟基礎脆弱又如何能來落實「適齡結婚」呢?這是一個現實問題。換言之,結婚除了要有意願,還要有經濟能力來維持一個家庭,至於要改變年輕人的觀念,則更需要調整社會的價值觀。
英文摘要
The number of married couples was 77,252 from January to August, which was 7,188 less than the same period last year, and 13,738 less than the same period in 2016, representing a decrease of 15% in four years. The continued decline in the number of marriage pairs this year means that the fertility status next year may be worse than this year, and 2022 is the year of the tiger, and the situation will hardly get better! In short, the next three years are likely to continue to hit new lows in fertility. The so-called age-appropriate marriage should broadly refer to the age of 20-34. As people generally receive higher education, there is little chance of getting married before 25. If they can get married at the age of 25-29, the chance of giving birth before the age of 35 (female) will be Higher. However, under the trend of aging population and declining birthrate, it brings about a wide range of socio-economic impacts, and the burden on young people is likely to rise. If young people’s salary is low (relative to housing prices), the risk of unemployment is high, and the economic foundation is weak, how can "age-appropriate marriage" be implemented? This is a practical problem. To sum up, in addition to the willingness to get married, the financial ability is necessary to maintain a family. As for changing the mindset of young people, it is even more essential to adjust social values.
英文關鍵字
fertility, marriage