近年來，兩岸人民接觸日趨頻繁。然而，兩岸人民社會接觸對於 未來大陸政策的影響為何，十分值得深究。本文以社會接觸觀點，探 討臺灣民眾對於大陸印象、態度、認知及政策反應。透過民意調查電 腦輔助電話訪問系統，以縣市分層系統隨機取樣，共獲得全臺灣有效 樣本 366 份。本文透過階層迴歸，驗證所設立研究假設。統計結果證 實：社會接觸的確與臺灣民眾對大陸政策的支持，呈現正向相關性； 對大陸負面印象越高者，對大陸政策支持程度越低；特別是比對鄰近 大陸的金門民眾，其對兩岸互設銀行的支持程度，比臺灣本島還高。

In recent years, exchanges have frequently taken place among people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. However, the effect of Cross-Strait social contact on future Mainland policy is a topic seldom examined by researchers in Taiwan, and it thus deserves further exploration. This study tries to find out the relationships between social contact, political attitudes, perceptions of Mainland China and responses to Mainland policy. This study collected 366 valid samples from 25 counties in Taiwan. A random sampling method was applied in order to collect data with the help of a ‘computer assisted telephone interviewing’ (CATI) system. Through hierarchical regression, this study verifies those research hypotheses that we explored. The statistical results confirm the positive relationship between social contacts and the Taiwan people’s support for the mainland policy. Furthermore, this study also confirms the economic interdependence between Taiwan and Mainland China. The supports for mutual establishment of banks across the Strait are higher among the citizens of Kinmen than among Taiwan.

社會接觸;大陸印象;大陸政策;政治態度;階層迴歸

Social Contact; Mainland China’s Image; Mainland Policy; Political Attitude; Hierarchical Regression