綜觀 2000 年的中國大陸情勢發展，政治方面，大致保持平穩的格 局，隨著「十六大」的逼近，中共黨內派系矛盾紛擾浮現，另「四信 思想危機」和幹部貪腐問題，已使政權面臨嚴厲挑戰；經濟方面，中 共雖克服了亞洲金融危機的困境，經濟成長持續上升，但東西部發展 失衡、國企改革困難、失業情況嚴重等問題依舊；社會方面，表面看 似穩定，實則危機四伏，其中最突出的是法輪功抗爭及社會治安不斷 惡化等問題。 在兩岸關係方面，中共面對我政權更替，一方面採取「聽言、觀 行」策略因應，另一方面在國際上全力鞏固「一個中國」的外交框 架，同時保持軍事威懾壓力，並在海外推動「反獨促統」活動，對我 全面防堵。中共在我新政府不斷釋出善意後，轉而採取較為柔性作 為，但仍堅持臺灣必先承認「一個中國」原則，致目前兩岸關係處於 「政治緊繃、軍事對峙」的景況。 展望未來，中共將會全面推動其所謂 21 世紀的「三大任務」，置 「現代化」於首位，堅持發展經濟，提升綜合國力，預為解決「臺灣 問題」厚植實力，進而提高其國際地位。與此同時，中共仍會持續對 臺進行各種統戰和滲透作為，勢將對我國家安全造成直接威脅。

Generally speaking, in the year 2000, the political situation in Mainland China is stable without serious problem occurred. With approaching of the "Shi Liu Da", contradictions and oppositions among different parties and groups are emerging; on the other hand, the "Four-Faith Ideal Crisis" and the serious corruption among staffs have confronted PRC with severe challenges. Economic Economically, PRC did overcome the problems brought by the Asian Financial Crisis and has maintained its economic growth rate increased; however, the problems of the unbalanced East-West economic development frustrated reform on state-owned business and the serious rate of unemployment in Mainland China still remain. As the society, it appears to be stable while in fact crisis are hidden and among which the most eye-catching ones are the Fa Lun Gong movement and the worsening crime rate. As far as the cross-strait relation, facing the impact that Taiwan has completed a peaceful transfer of the political power, PRC has applied the "listen and watch" policy on one hand and insist on "One China" principle as a diplomatic framework to the world on the other hand. At the same time, PRC also maintain military pressure "against independence" and continue to block out Taiwan's space internationally. After the continuous expression of good will by the new government, PRC has turned its policy toward Taiwan on a more mild approach. However, Beijing still insists that Taiwan must admit the "One China" principal before any negotiation or official interaction conld be initiated. Therefore, the cross-strait relation is still presently under the "political tension and military converge" situation. As to the future, PRC probably would spare no effort to push forward so-called the 21century "3 major mission". Placing modernization as the top one, PRC will have to focus on its economy, and to promote its comprehensive national power to get ready to solve the Taiwan problem in the future and create better condition to improve national status internationally. At the same time, PRC will use all possible means and accesses to carry out policies and strategies of reunification.

中國大陸;中共對臺政策;一個中國;臺海危機;一國兩制

Mainland China; China's strategy toward Taiwan; One China; Taiwan Strait crisis; One country two systems