本文想探討中國身為一個修正主義崛起國家，為何要藉由發動灰 帶戰略來挑戰主導強權國？本文將以中國在區域層次的視角來分析中 美在臺海的衝突，中共近年為了擴張在亞太地區的權力，尤其是在臺 灣海峽的影響力，頻頻以飛機擾臺、經濟控制等方式對臺灣實施灰帶 戰略，故本文採用林克的多重階層體系理論，假設：中國為了追求區 域主導強權地位，以示自己有實力與美國競爭，而選擇使用灰帶戰略 先發制人，模糊和平與衝突邊界。本文將以論述分析為研究方法論證 假設，並佐以最相似案例比較來鞏固因果關係，分別是 2022 年的裴 洛西來臺事件與 2014 年的麥卡錫來臺事件。本文主要發現，中國因 為感受到美國威脅，為了維護成為區域主導強權的目標，經過成本平 衡考量後，選擇使用灰帶戰略以對抗美國。本文在理論上為中國發動 灰帶戰略提供深入的因果分析，在經驗上彌補目前灰帶戰略在臺海研 究的不足，為中美在臺海的衝突帶來新的視角。

This paper explores why China, as a rising revisionist power, employs a gray zone strategy to challenge hegemonic powers. This paper analyzes the U.S.-China conflicts in the Taiwan Strait from a regional perspective. In recent years, China has frequently employed gray zone strategies, such as aerial incursions and economic control, to expand its power in the Asia-Pacific, particularly its influence over the Taiwan Strait. Therefore, this paper adopts Lemke’s Multiple Hierarchies Theory, and posits that China, in an attempt to maintain its status as a regional great power and demonstrate its capability to compete with the U.S., has chosen to employ gray zone strategies preemptively, blurring the lines between peace and conflict. The study uses discourse analysis to test this hypothesis and supports the argument by comparing two similar cases: Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022 and Gina McCarthy’s visit in 2014. The paper’s main finding is that China, in perceiving the U.S. threat, has considered the costs and benefits and opted to use gray zone strategies to counter U.S. actions, thereby preserving its regional dominance. This study provides an in-depth causal analysis of China’s use of gray zone strategies, while empirically filling gaps in the existing research on the Taiwan Strait by offering a new perspective on the U.S.-China conflict in the region.

灰帶戰略;權力轉移;區域主導強權;論述分析;案例比較

Gray zone strategy; Power transition; Regional dominant power; Discourse analysis; Case comparison