目的：本研究旨在探討2024年巴黎奧運女子拳擊57公斤級比賽，勝、敗方技術表現之差異、得分與技術表現之關係，並建立勝方指標技術之迴歸方程式。方法：以2024年巴黎奧運女子組57公斤級9場比賽為分析研究範圍，依轉播視頻於實際比賽過程中各種技術表現，記錄各回合各拳法之出拳次數、出拳擊中次數等，所得資料以SPSS for Windows 23.0版套裝軟體，進行統計處理以t檢定考驗勝、敗方各技術出拳擊中率之差異；以皮爾遜積差相關考驗各項技術之相關；以逐步迴歸分析，建立迴歸預測方程式。結果：勝方各回合出拳擊中率，有2種拳法達顯著差異，分別為：後手反擊拳(第1回合＞第3回合)、組合拳C (前直拳+後手直拳+前手鉤拳) 第1回合＞第2回與和第3回合。勝方總得分與前手鉤拳、後手鉤拳、後手下鉤拳達顯著相關；後手下鉤拳與前手刺拳、前手鉤拳、總得分達顯著相關；後手反擊拳與前手刺拳、前手上鉤拳達顯著相關。迴歸模式達顯著水準，獲得5個代表性預測項目，分別為：前手刺拳、後手鉤拳、後手下鉤拳、後手反擊拳、組合拳B (前手刺拳+前手刺拳+後手直拳) 等5種。被選入方程的變量，對得分具有正面的解釋力達74%。結論：設計有效的戰術模擬、策略應用及提升執行能力，對於拳擊比賽至關重要，如能取得較佳的時、空情境，善用擊中率較高的拳法，獲勝(得分) 的機率將可大為提升。反擊拳技術屬於進階技術之一，是效率最佳的拳法，為勝方作為主要進攻的得分手段之一，應用逐步迴歸分析方法，可建立最優的迴歸方程式，預測指標模式的建構，可作為情蒐之依據，為選手提供知己知彼有利的競技條件，為指導者釐清並掌握訓練重點，進而促進訓練計畫擬定之合理性與訓練調整之參考。

Purpose: This study aims to examine the relationship between technical execution and earning scores in women’s 57kg featherweight boxing and establish a regression model for key winning techniques. Methods: This study analyzed video recording from nine bouts of women’s boxing 57kg division at the 2024 Paris Olympic Games, including the frequency and accuracy of various punching techniques during each round. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS 23.0. A paired t-test was used to examine the differences in punching accuracy between winners and losers. Pearson correlation analysis was performed to explore relationships among different techniques. Stepwise regression analysis was applied to establish a predictive regression model. Results: Two punching techniques revealed a significant difference in hit rate across rounds among winners: rear-hand counterpunches (higher in Round 1 than in Round 3) and Combination C (lead-hand jab + rear-hand cross + lead-hand hook), which was more effective in Round 1 compared to Rounds 2 and 3. Winners’ scores were significantly correlated with lead-hand hooks, rear-hand hooks, and rear-hand overhands. Rear-hand overhands were significantly correlated with lead-hand jab, lead-hand hooks, and total scores. Rear-hand counterpunches were significantly correlated with lead-hand jabs and lead-hand uppercuts. The regression model identified five key predictive variables: lead-hand jab, rear-hand hook, rear-hand overhand, rear-hand counterpunch, and Combination B (double lead-hand jabs + rear-hand cross), collectively explaining 74% of the variance in scoring. Conclusion: Setting up effective game strategies and execution are essential for success in boxing. Properly timing and applying high-accuracy techniques might enhance the opportunity of winning games. Counterpunching, as an advanced boxing technique, might be particularly effective for scoring and a key strategy for winners. Developing a regression could be a solution to identify key technical indicators to offer insightful analysis for training and competition.

相關技術; 技術因子; 預測模式

applied techniques; technical factors; predictive model