近來，中國大陸針對台灣水果的優惠關稅政策，引發台灣朝野間相當不同的看法。在中國國民所得持續成長、可支配所得逐年增加之下，當地居民對於食品消費乃至水果需求的現況如何，是評估台灣水果輸銷中國大陸之際不得不考量的因素。鑑此，本文擬從二階段預算配置（two-stage budgeting)模型出發，針對中國大陸城鎮居民自1996年至2001年間的家計支出，利用追蹤資料模型(panel data model)來推估價格與所得的改變，對於大陸城鎮居民在食品以及水果消費配置下所形成的影響。結果顯示，水果類在食品消費當中最具支出彈性，反應出所得持續提升之下，城鎮居民對於水果的需求最為強烈。此外，水果品目當中又以西瓜、香蕉與葡萄的支出彈性最大，顯示中國大陸城鎮居民在消費支出增加之時，對於選購上述三種果物的意願較高。本文分析結果除有助於清楚瞭解中國大陸的水果需求現況外，在水果輸銷中國大陸的政策考量上，也提供了某些程度的參考價值。

This study, motivated by an open trade policy for fruit between Taiwan and China, utilized a two-stage budgeting allocation to construct an LES-AIDS model. In order to better understand fruit consumption patterns in urban China, we employed annual provincial data from urban China between 1996 and 2001. We estimated a fixed-effect panel data model to investigate demands for fruits and other foods in urban China and attempted to make potential policy implications for fresh fruit trade between Taiwan and China. Our empirical results revealed several important findings. First, estimated expenditure elasticities from the first-stage food demand system show that fruits and aquatic products are the two food groups which the Chinese urban households would increase consumption of the most, as long as their income continues to grow as expected. In addition, among all fruit items of interest, watermelons, bananas and grapes have the highest expenditure elasticities (both condi­tional and unconditional elasticities), indicating that Chinese urban households would increase their consumption of these fruit items more than the others. Finally, our empirical analyses in this study provide a better understanding of fruit consumption patterns in urban China and may provide constructive suggestions for the Taiwanese government concerning related policies of fruit exports to China.

中國大陸; 需求分析; LES-AIDS模型; 二階段預算配置模型; 水果

China; demand analysis; LES-AIDS model; two-stage budgeting model; fruits