關於組合主義在總體經濟政策上的影響，自七○年代中期以來，成為許多學者關心的焦點。過去的實證研究，一再顯示因為工會中央化的關係，組合主義國家的罷工率較非組合主義的國家低，薪資結構也比較平等。因為工會中央化的程度和罷工率及它和薪資差異的程度都是負相關，所以這些研究暗示了在罷工率和薪資差異之間，也這存在著一種正相關的關係。在這篇論文中，我們嘗試將薪資差異視為工會中央化對罷工造成影響中介變數。也就是說，工會中央化對罷工率和薪資差異的影響並不是個自獨立的。如果薪資差異和罷工率之間的因果關係可以由實證資料來證實，那麼它在理論上的意涵是像工會中央化這樣的制度也許是可以被其他的制度設計所取代。因此，對近年來北歐國家中央工會逐漸瓦解現象來說，正黨和工會幹部也這應該考慮其他的政策，而不是將焦點放在繼續維持工會的中央化。 以瑞典中央產業公會（Swedish Employer’s Confederation）和美國勞工局（U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics）的薪資資料為基礎，在實證的統計分析後，這篇報告發現，在跨國的經驗中，薪資差異和罷工之間並不存在因果關係。而就個別國家而言，統計的結果沒有一致性。最令人驚訝的結果是在中央工會的國家，諸如北歐各國，產業間薪資差距的大小對罷工率的高底並無任何顯著的影響。這樣的結果所顯示的可能是就低罷工率和較為平等的薪資結構而言，工會中央化仍然是一個不可或缺的制度。目前北歐組合主義國家中央工會的瓦解，將使得這些國家在未來面臨一個比過去不穩定的生產秩序和一個比過去不平等的薪資結構。

Suggested by the previous empirical studies on corporatism, the degree of inter-industry wage differential and the level of strike activity, both negatively related to union centralization, should have a positive relation between them. Proposed in this article is that if wage differential can be viewed and introduced as the intervening variable between union centralization and strike rates, then union centralizations an institutional arrangement might be replaceable for producing a stable industrial other and an egalitarian wage structure. Thus, facing the current decentralization trend in some corporatist countries, unionists and socialist parties should probably consider other policy designs instead of concentrating their efforts on keeping the unions centralized. Using wage data from Swedish Employer’s Confederation and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the statistical results of this research find that cross-sectionally the causal relation between wage differential and strike rates does not exist. And time-series results in respective countries are not consistent either. The most surprising time-series result is that this relation cannot be found in countries that have a centralized union. These results indicate that union centralization after all might be indispensable, and the current decentralization trend swill lead corporatist countries to experience in the future a less stable industrial order and less egalitarian wage structure.

工業化國家;薪資差距;罷工