第3卷
/
1994 / 3
/
pp. 97 - 123
經濟情況與選民投票抉擇
Economic Conditions and Voter's Choices
作者
黃秀端 Shiow-Duan Hawang *
(東吳大學政治學系專任副教授 Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Soochow University)
黃秀端 Shiow-Duan Hawang *
東吳大學政治學系專任副教授 Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Soochow University
中文摘要

在經濟與政治關係日益密切以及經濟對於我們日常生活之影響日益加深之今天,選民對於經濟情況的態度是否會影響其投票意向。乃是學者關切的課題。西方國家,特別是美國,在此方面的研究指出選民對於總體經濟情況之看法確實會影響其投票行為,且選民對於整體經濟情況之主觀看法,確實反映了國家客觀之經濟情況。 根據本文對於臺北縣立委選舉研究發現,選民對於國家經濟整體之看法以及對個人自身經濟狀況之評估皆與黨派抉擇呈現顯著之相關,但是相關係數並不高,而且當其它因素加入時,經濟之影響力便因此消失。 經濟因素對臺北縣選舉不具解釋力,可能與兩黨對於經濟問題之態度並不明顯,以及選民也不認為經濟問題是目前最重要最迫切需要解決之問題有關。在統獨問題和臺灣前途問題等象徵性議題仍舊是構成選舉中重要的主題時,經濟問題之影響力不易顯現是可以理解的。

英文摘要

With the expansion in the size and scope of government during this century there has surely been a concomitant increase in he electoral importance of the economy. In the last two decades hundred of public polls have shown that economic problems to be the major source of public concerns in most western democratic countries, particularly in the United States. Most studies indicated that votes who believed that the nation’s economy was doing well tend to support the incumbents, while those who believed that it had worsened tend to vote for the challengers. Moreover, massive swings in overall perception of the national economy occur in response to objective economic conditions. This paper intended to examine the impact of the voters’ responsiveness to changing economic conditions and perception of personal financial conditions on their party choices in Taipei county during the second term legislative election. According to the analysis of survey result, the author find that both pubic assessment of national economic conditions and perception of personal financial conditions are not very important in influencing voters’ decisions when compared with other variables, such as party identification, perception of party performance and other symbolic issues. Most people tend to view national identity and Taiwan’s future problem as the most important issues facing this country today, while they do not regard economic issue as an urgent condition. When national identity and Taiwan’s furure problems still constituted the major issue concern during the 1992 election, there is no supprise that the importance of economic variables has been downplayed.

中文關鍵字

經濟情況;選民;投票抉擇