緬甸國防軍總司令敏昂萊於2021年2月1日發動軍事政變，罷黜翁山蘇姬主導的民選政府並採行軍事鎮壓，終結緬甸自2010年推動的民主化，全國反抗運動集結擴大，隨著全民盟結合少數民族成立的全國團結政府成為對抗軍政府的影子政府及和平抗爭失效，致使各方訴諸武裝對抗，擴大成為內戰狀態。又隨著國內衝突危機升高，軍方及反對力量都在尋求代表合法政府的正當性，民族武裝團體的政治及軍事影響力獲得高度重視，長期被視為破壞國家統一與和平的叛亂角色，轉變為衝突危機解決及開創國家新局的關鍵角色。本文將探討民族武裝團體對於緬甸軍事政變的回應，及其對於後政變時期政治局勢的影響層面。

Myanmar’s February 1, 2021, coup d’état staged by Tatmadaw ended Myanmar's decade-old process of democratization and intensified armed conflict across the country. The junta’s suppression and undiscriminated assault on its opponents has fueled resistance movements and spiraled into civil war nationwide, involving civilians and ethnic armed groups from across the country. While the shadow government, the National Unity Government (NUG), called for armed struggle against the junta’s coup, the military mobilization has been energized by the NUG’s move to organize an army and military cooperation with other pro-democracy efforts. However, due to a lack of sophisticated arms and military expertise, the NUG has an urgent need to win over the support of Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAO) and assistance in military and political aspects. EAOs are regarded as influential and significant partners with their leverage and dominance, as the NUG and junta both are struggling to establish a legitimate government in the post-coup era. EAOs have had a wide range of responses — and resistance to — the coup, based on their history, geographic location and strategic objectives, with appeals for territorial, governance and nation-building proposals in the form of independence, autonomy or a federal union. Amid the dynamics of escalating conflict crisis, perceptions of the role of EAOs have shifted from that of rebel actor to savior, from peace spoiler to peace maker. This paper explores the dynamics of Myanmar’s civil war since the 2021 coup d’état and the role of EAOs amid the struggle between resistance movements and military-regime consolidation.

軍事政變;軍政府;全國團結政府;民族團結團體;武裝對抗

Coup d’État; Junta; National Unity Government; Ethnical Armed Organizations; Post-coup Era