冷戰迄今,美國對中政策由對抗走向交往,再走向戰略對抗,促成美國對中政策之衝突與合作之產出條件為何?本文以權力轉移與持久性敵對關係之學理建立分析架構,運用模糊集質性比較分析法,以集合論與布林運算為基礎,比較美國歷屆總統對中政策之各式條件組合,得出美國對中衝突或合作各自之必要、充分條件為何。本文分析結果顯示,「中國不滿美中關係」與「缺乏共同敵人」同時成立是美國對中衝突的充分條件;「中國滿意美中關係」、「存在共同敵人」各自是美國對中合作之充分條件。

Since the Cold War, the United States’ policy toward China has evolved from confrontation to engagement, and now toward strategic competition. What are the causes of conflict and cooperation in U.S. policy toward China? This article establishes an analytical framework based on power transition and enduring rivalry theories. It employs a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis method using set theory and Boolean logic to compare various combinations of factors that have influenced U.S. presidents’ policies toward China over the years. The analysis aims to identify the necessary or sufficient conditions for U.S. conflict or cooperation with China. The results of this analysis indicate that Chinese dissatisfaction with U.S.-China relations and lack of a common enemy together constitute sufficient conditions for U.S. conflict with China. Furthermore, Chinese satisfaction with U.S.-China relations and the presence of a common enemy are each sufficient conditions for U.S. cooperation with China.

美中關係;美國外交政策;權力轉移;持久性敵對;質性比較分析

U.S.-China Relations; U. S. Foreign Policy; Power Transition; Enduring Rivalry; Qualitative Comparative Analysis