本文根據選後的訪調資料，一方面在於探討一九九八年第二屆台北市長選舉的選民投票抉擇，另方面也分析選民的分裂投票行為、以及新黨的一致與分裂投票現象。本研究的初步結論認為：第一、若以投票取向而言，馬英九在政黨取向的選民上較居優勢，陳水扁的支持者則以候選人見長，而政見取向的投票比率，卻以王建　的為最多。其次，影響選民黨派投票抉擇的因素，主要是選民的族群認同、選民所支持政黨的認同傾向、對候選人的評估態度，以及選民對國家未來前途之統獨立場的偏好態度等。第三，就影響選民一致投票或分裂投票的原因而言，主要是受到選民的省籍背景、政黨認同傾向與候選人評估等因素所決定。最後，至於新黨的選民為何出現一致與分裂投票，主要受到選民的教育程度與他們對馬英九的評估態度所左右。 本文結論指出，二屆台北市長的選舉，乃是充滿族群衝突、政權保衛與統獨之爭的選舉，而影響選民黨派投票抉擇、是否採取一致或分裂投票等因素，都環繞在這些因素上。新黨的支持者在這樣的選舉環境中，的確掉入兩難的困境，寧捨自己所屬政黨候選人，而投票支持國民黨的候選人馬英九，以達到拉下民進黨陳水扁為目的。

This paper explores the partisan vote-choice of Taipei electorate in the second mayoral election of 1998. Besides, split-ticket voting is focused and, especially the split-ticket voting among New Party’s supporters is thus singed out to be examined vis-à-vis its straight-ticket voting counterpart. First, as shown in our findings KMT’s candidate Mr. Ma was advantaged by his party mobilization, DPP’s candidate Mr. Chen by candidate evaluation, and NP’s candidate Mr. Wang had comparatively higher proportion of issue-voting. Second, the factors of ethnic identity, partisanship, candidate evaluation, and stance on the unification-independence issue were found to have direct significant effects on voter’s partisan vote-choices. Third, electorate’s straight-ticket or split-ticket voting were found to be determined by a cluster of factors that related with voter’s ethnicity, partisanship and candidate evaluation. Finally, the phenomenon of straight-ticket and split-ticket voting among NP’s supporters is best explained by their education level and attitudes toward Ma, the KMT’s running mate. This paper concludes that the 1998 Taipei mayoral election was heavily aired and stuffed by ethnic conflict, crisis of KMT regime and/or debates on the unification-independence issues. Therefore, those related factors were consequently becoming both the determinants of electorate’s partisan vote-choice and of adopting either straight-or splict-ticket voting. In such electoral environment, NP’s supporters were facing a dilemma, and to the upmost goal to defeat the least-like DPP’s candidate, most of them chose to pit KMT’s candidate against the nominee of their own party.

投票取向;一致與分裂投票;政黨認同;候選人評估;統獨立場

voting orientation; strait-ticket voting; split-ticket voting; partisanship; candidate evaluation; stance on the unification-independence issue