本文主張前總統李登輝於1998年中，決定強化台灣主權論述的動機是解釋1999年兩國論此一政策改變的主要因素。將兩國論決策過程的分析分成兩部分︰(1)為什麼1998年李總統決定強化台灣主權論述？(2)為什麼兩國論最後選擇在1999年發動？此舉將提供較完整的解釋—為什麼台北政府放棄“一中政策”轉而主張兩岸是特殊的國與國關係？將李前總統的兩國論開始於1998年中的發現納入兩國論的分析，產生兩個不同於現有文獻的研究結果—(1)國內因素的排除以及(2)外部因素的確認。

This paper argues that President Lee Teng-hui’s intention to enhance the legal status of Taiwan in mid-1998 is the major reason behind his launching of the “two-state” theory in July 1999. By dividing the policymaking process of the “two-state” theory into two parts - (a) the reasons for Lee’s preparation of the policy change in 1998 and (b) his announcement of the policy change in 1999 - this article provides an insight into why the Lee administration moved away from its original China policy and instead promoted the “two-state” theory. The application of Lee’s motives for the policy change in mid-1998 to the research into the “two-state” theory leads to the introduction of two new contributing factors to the literature dealing with this policy shift; first, the influence of domestic politics needs be downplayed, if not excluded, and, secondly, external factors, hitherto under-acknowledged or ignored, are identified.

兩國論;認知研究;中程協議;政治心理學

“two-state” theory; perception approach; interim agreements