目標：針對經建會提出之臺灣未來人口推估，本研究嘗試了解未來人口結構轉變對健康方面可能的影響。方法：以現有癌症或失能率及健保醫療支出及未來人口結構，推估未來將癌症或失能的人數及健保醫療支出。結果：毫無疑問，隨著臺灣人口老化，老年人口罹患慢性病如癌症及失能的絕對人數及相對比例將明顯增加，在醫療費用需求亦增加下，這些轉變將變成整個社會沉重的負擔。結論：相對於人口結構調整策略，運用健康促進來降低及預防疾病及失能應為一有效方法。

Objectives: As the projections of Taiwan's future population have recently been proposed, this analysis is aimed to understand the possible health impacts of the change in population structure. Methods: Based on the current age-specific cancer and disability rates, age- sex- specific total medical expenditure, and the future population structure, the numbers of people with cancer and disability and the total medical expenditure for older people are projected. Results: Not surprisingly, as Taiwan's population is aging, a substantial increase in the absolute numbers and the relative proportions of cancer and disability for older people can be seen. As a result of these adverse outcomes, future medical expenses needed for older people will create a huge burden for society, Conclusions: Rather than trying to change the future population, health promotion and disability and disease prevention will be a more effective way of coping with these problems.

老化；癌症；失能；醫療支出

Aging; cancer; disability; medical expenditure