目標：在藉由香菸的價格彈性估計來評估提高香菸健康捐課徵對香菸消費的影響，研究結果有助於台灣未來調漲香菸健康捐之重要參考依據。方法：使用門檻迴歸(threshold regression)搭配短視上癮模型(myopic addiction model)，以1975-2006年的菸品價量時間數列資料，估計香菸的價格彈性。結果：高價區及低價區的香菸格彈性分別-0.7312及-0.1204。若依國民健康局菸害防制法修正案國內菸品健康捐由10元增加為20元，將使國人平均每人香菸消費減少14.36%，節省醫療支出約8.45%（約30.86億）。結論：門檻模型的估計結果與一般線性模式確實有差異；另一方面，從菸害防制及財政的觀點，課徵香菸捐將有助於抑制國人香菸的消費，又可以額外增加政府財政收益。

Objectives: This study evaluated the effect of increasing the Health and Welfare Tax on cigarette consumption by estimating cigarette price elasticity. Methods: We utilized a threshold regression with myopic addiction model to estimate the price elasticity for cigarettes sold from 1975 through 2006. Results: The results indicated that the price elasticity for cigarettes is -0.7312. Raising the tobacco health welfare tax from NT$10 to NT$20 per pack in 2009 will result in a total reduction of an average of 14.36% per capita in cigarette consumption and generate medical saving of 8.45%, or NT$3.086 billion. Conclusions: The authors hope that the results of this study will provide a useful reference for policymakers when instituting taxes on cigarettes as part of health policy. From public health and financial perspectives, an increase in the excise tax on cigarettes will have a significant effect on reducing cigarette consumption, and it will also generate additional tax revenue.

門檻迴歸;短視上癮模型;價格彈性;香菸消費

threshold regression, myopic addiction model, price elasticity, cigarette consumption