2016 年是 1996 年臺海危機 20 週年。當年定名為「聯合 96」的中國解放軍演習，對我國家安全造成重大衝擊，此一危機之所以發生，其本質在於北京對臺灣主權的爭奪；因應此一危機，李登輝政府當年建立了一套危機處理作業程序，透過此一機制，國安會扮演最高的危機處理組織，透過多方的情資判定，此一危機的性質在影響當年 3 月的臺灣首次總統大選。針對此一核心威脅，國安幕僚設定「確保選舉如期完成」為危機處理目標，並據此想定臺海危機的 12 個場景(scenarios)，策定危機 處理計畫，內容包括處置計畫、溝通計畫、形象管理計畫、資源動員計畫等等，最後危機終於獲得控管並解除。 本研究透過對當時危機處理團隊的深度訪談，發現 96 年臺海危機的處置作為，主要有措施：（一）成立危機處理組織；（二）判定危機的性質；（三）確立危機處理目標；（四）擬定並實施危機處理計畫；（五）控管危機。對此本論文進一步提出檢討與修正，包括：（一）設立危機處理專責機制；（二）建立標準作業程序；（三）設置朝野溝通機制，相信經過此一 修正，應可建構適合臺灣國情與體制的國家安全危機處理機制。

2016 is the 20th anniversary of the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis. The military exercise by the Liberation Army of People’s Republic of China, known as the "United 96" exercise that year seriously affected Taiwan’s national security. The underlying cause of the crisis was that China was trying to seize Taiwan’s sovereignty. In response to this crisis, the Lee Teng-hui administration at the time established standard operating procedures for crisis management. The National Security Council (NSC), acting as the principal institution for this mechanism, gathered all intelligence and determined that the purpose of creating this crisis by China was to influence Taiwan's first presidential election in March 1996. Faced with such an existential threat, the staff at the NSC proposed 12 scenarios with crisis management plans including response protocols, communications, media planning, resource mobilization et al, to ensure the ultimate goal of having the election proceeded on schedule. At the end, the crisis was controlled and resolved. Through in-depth interviews with the crisis management team at the time, this study concludes that the main responses to the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis were: (I) establishing a crisis management organization; (II) determining the nature of the crisis; (III) identifying the objectives of crisis management; (IV) developing and executing the crisis management plans; (V) controlling and managing the crisis. This thesis proposes additional reviews and revisions, including: (a) setting up a dedicated crisis management mechanism; (b) establishing standard operating procedures; (c) establishing a communication mechanism involving ruling and opposition parties. We be lieve the proposed revisions can establish a crisis management model that is more compatible with the unique situation and political system in Taiwan.

國家安全、危機處理模式、1996 年臺海危機、「聯合 96」演習、李登輝

national security, crisis management model, 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, "United 96" exercise, Lee Teng-hui