全球環境資源變異，水資源短缺是21世紀的課題核心。整合生態系統機制及人類需求的宏觀視野，方能提供解決資源永續發展的問題。本研究中探討生態安全涵構，評析環境監測模型的特點，利用系統動態學處理具相對性、非線性、時滯性特質的永續河川監測模型，並以台北市淡水河為實證基地驗證模型的真實性。研究中發現，生態安全環境監測系統具地區獨特性，系統中存在關鍵因子，變數間存在反饋及時滯反應。系統動態學方法論並非用於短期政策之精確模擬，而是提供宏觀與微觀兼具的觀察視野。系統動態模型雖非絕對完美，但藉此整合跨領域及跨部門資訊，將成為解決複雜環境問題的可行條件。

The growing scarcity of fresh and clean water is among the core issues facing civilization in the 21st century. The idea integrats of ecosystem mechanism and human needs offer a way to solve the nature resources demand issues with macro perspective. One approach that can help managers deal with river ecosystem relative, non-linear, causal, feedback is system dynamics modeling. Eco-security is not only foundation stone of sustainable development, but also one of the goals sustainable developments. Systemic theory considers that a system is always more than sum of its elements due to some relations, and it includes some new emergent properties that each element do not have. This paper describes the use of the model in research framework and discusses the potential of this kind of interactive model. The reality of this research has been proved by examing the case study for Tamsui River. Therefore; a monitoring system to the urban sustainable river should be built soon. Hence, the model system dynamics is not panacea, the surveillance system of ecosystem and environmental problem can be set up based on strategy evaluation and optimized policy by grasping the key point.

生態安全，環境監測，系統動態模型，系統動態學，河川生態

Eco-security, Environmental surveillance, System dynamic model, System dynamics, River ecology