美國在綜合實力仍相當領先中國的情況下，從隱晦到正面地「再 平衡」中國，符合攻勢現實主義描述的特徵，但攻勢現實主義本身卻 無法完整解釋美國戰略轉折的合理性。因此，本文引進「身分」概 念，以補充攻勢現實主義執著的「位置」邏輯。本文發現，反恐戰爭 後，美國面臨身分與位置同時削弱的挑戰，中國才再度成為其首要制 衡對象。而中國原本就長期為身分與位置逆行的困擾所苦，美國「再 平衡」政策的強大壓力，迫使中國外交原有的戰略缺失暴露出來，且 短期難見改善的方向，是以美中關係將近入一段緊張期。

Washington’s “rebalancing” strategy is widely believed to target and check China’s growing power and influence in Asia. This strategy is an ongoing event so its components are still in the making. This study tries to employ a perspective inspired by the theory of offensive realism to explain and explore the essence of America’s “rebalancing” and determine its effectiveness. For a better explanation, the author further amends the original propositions of offensive realism by introducing “identity” factors as a supplementary but necessary variable to support the realist logic of “defending a position”. The study reveals that thanks to the pressure of America’s “rebalancing”, the weakness of a flawed Chinese “good-neighbor policy” was exploited. The fundamental shortcoming of China’s foreign strategy is the contradiction between its growing “position of power” and its problematic national identity and discourse.

美中關係;中國外交;再平衡;重返亞洲;攻勢現實主義

U.S.-China Relations; Chinese Foreign Policy; Rebalancing; Back to Asia; Offensive Realism