由於軍事反恐的實質是一種非戰爭性軍事行動，反映著更多非傳 統安全與利益的考量，也導致參與軍事反恐者之間出現既合作又潛藏 著衝突的關係。事實上，這種關係可被視為彼此不確定戰略關係與有 限敵意的博弈情境。而參與軍事反恐者也就如同對弈者，彼此對合作 或潛藏衝突的允諾，是否足以對其他對弈者產生可信服的作用，也就 必須視其社會實踐的條件而定。因此，處在大國之間對弈的弱者會採 平衡政策，而大國之間的合作也會因彼此內部情勢而改變合作立場， 並儘量避免彼此發生衝突。上海合作組織成員國與大國間的實力落 差，卻能以不對稱的合作交往模式，將領土主權的傳統安全透過反恐 軍事與非傳統安全領域合作，建構出多邊安全架構。本文旨趣則在分 析其等合作或衝突的允諾，是否足以產生可信服的作用，因為分析這 種作用，可以更真實地說明該組織持續發展的條件與侷限，並有助於 啟發人們對中亞區域安全情勢之理解。

Because the nature of the combat-terrorism is military operation other than war, it reflects more considerations to non-traditional security and interests. In addition to, that leads either cooperative or conflict relationship between people who have sponsored the combat-terrorism. In fact, this relation could be regarded as uncertain strategic and limited adversary relationship in a game. People sponsoring combat-terrorism are like players, and it depends on the terms of social practice that if the commitment to cooperation or conflict is enough to result convincible effect among each player or not. Therefore, the weaker players would adopt balance policy, and the great powers would change their grounds about cooperation based on mutual domestic trend in order to avoid conflict with each other. The grave gap between membership of Shanghai Cooperation Organization and great powers, can shape an engagement model by asymmetric cooperation to construct multilateral security framework for traditional security of sovereignty by cooperating in combat-terrorism and non-traditional security domain. The interest of this article is about analyzing the commitment to cooperation or conflict if it is enough to bring convincible effect. By analyzing this effect, it can authentically explain the sustainable development terms and limits about this organization and help to inspire people to understand the security trend in Central Asian.

上海合作組織;反恐怖主義;允諾策略;非戰爭性軍事行 動;新安全觀

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization; Combat-terrorism; Commitment Strategy; Military Operation Other Than War (MOTTW); New Security Concept