國家操作能源槓桿左右國際政局不乏前例，能源外交的運用近年 更是頻繁。2006 年烏俄天然氣之爭非但衝擊烏克蘭，更首度波及歐 盟。事後，烏克蘭內部親俄勢力壯大，俄國能源外交操作似乎奏效， 但俄國實際上卻從未有效地約束烏克蘭的離心傾向。本文以為，俄國 能源外交固然催化烏克蘭政局演變，卻反而強化烏克蘭的內部歧異。 烏克蘭政局發展的關鍵實圍繞其國內政治利益考量、親西方或親俄的 路線之爭，以及其特有的分歧性。

There are several precedents of bringing the energy issue to the forefront in international politics, but recently the manipulation of energy diplomacy has been more frequent in recent years. The natural gas struggle between Ukraine and Russia in 2006 not only had an impact on Ukraine, but also involved the European Union for the very first time. Ostensibly, Russia gained great success on its energy diplomacy since pro-Russia’s forces boomed in Ukraine. However, Russia has never controlled Ukraine’s centrifugal force effectively. This thesis contends that Russia’s energy diplomacy has intensified the internal chasm of Ukraine even as it catalyzed its political changes. The overall political development of Ukraine is in fact based on factors encompassing domestic political interests, the pro-west vs. pro-Russia struggles, and Ukraine’s own unique internal chasm.

能源外交;層次分析;地緣政治;烏克蘭;俄羅斯

Energy Diplomacy; Level Analysis; Geopolitics; Ukraine; Russia