年來國際情勢仍然延續「911 事件」後美國全球反恐戰略所形成之 脈動。繼 2002 年美國在聯合國授權下領導盟軍推翻阿富汗塔里班政 權，掃蕩在阿國境內的國際恐怖主義團體「蓋達」後，2003 年接著以 伊拉克為對象，並堅持北韓必須先允諾廢除研發核武，始願意在多邊 架構下提供安全保證。美軍於年底順利擒獲海珊，此雖有助於布希政 府紓解內外質疑其伊拉克政策之壓力，惟布希政府對伊拉克之先制攻 擊行動並未贏得回教世界人心，伊國境內的恐怖攻擊活動未能止息， 「蓋達」等國際恐怖組織仍將伺機再度發動攻擊。展望未來，即使歐 盟企圖主導歐安事務，中共亦謀藉介入調處北韓核問題，塑造其為負 責任之東亞領導國，惟在美國繼續推動全球反恐與先制攻擊戰略，以 及強化海外駐軍等因素下，美國在全球各地之影響力恐將持續增強， 國際權力格局不致改變。

The international situation of 2003 has continued the development of the US global anti-terrorist campaign following the 911 incident. After overthrowing the Taliban regime and wiping out Al-Qaeda under the authorization of the UN last year, this year the US went to target Iraq, and to insist that North Korea first promise to abolish its nuclear program, if it wishes to gain a guarantee of security under the multilateral structure. The recent US capture of Saddam Hussein has been helpful in releasing pressure over questions surrounding the Bush Administration’s Iraqi policy. However, the US preemptive strike against Iraq has not won the goodwill of the world’s Muslim population. The terrorist attacks in Iraq have continued and Al-Qaeda elements are waiting for an opportune moment to counterattack. Looking to the future, even though the EU is attempting to dominate European security, and China is planning to help mediate in the North Korea nuclear crisis positively in order to portray itself as a respon sible, leading power in East Asia, under the global anti-terrorist campaign led by the US, the US preemptive strike strategy and the strengthening of its overseas military deployment, only the US influence in the international community will be enhanced and the “one superpower with powers” power structure is unlikely to change.

六方會談;回教祈禱團;四D;上海合作組織;非洲聯盟;大 國平衡外交政策;亞洲意識

Six-Nation Talks; Jemaah Islamiya; 4D Strategy; the Shanghai Cooperation Organization; African Union; Balance of Power Policy; Asian Consensus