冷戰結束之後，美國的全球戰略部署即往單邊主義傾斜，「911 事 件」加速讓布希政府迷信用軍事手段解決問題，外交斡旋的手腕相對 顯得不足。2003 年 5 月 1 日，布希總統宣告結束在伊拉克的主要戰鬥 行動之後，美國隨即陷入「缺錢缺人」的窘境。當前的伊拉克已成為 導引波灣地區安全情勢走向的關鍵。海珊政權殘餘分子進行武裝游擊 戰的結果、美國何時大規模撤軍、伊拉克新政府如何組成等問題，都 會衝擊到整個區域的情勢變化，也會影響美國在中東地區的角色。本 文試圖站在美國對伊拉克戰略思維的角度，探討美伊戰後的波灣安全 情勢。

After the Cold War, the American worldwide military deployment is leaning towards the unilateralism. The September 11th attacks makes the Bush Administration believe that military measures instead of diplomacy can resolve any trouble. Since President Bush declared that the major combat operation come to an end on May 1, 2003, American troops have become involved in predicament of being short of cash and manpower immediately. Iraq has become the central issue driving events in the Persian Gulf. The outcome of the guerilla insurgency, the U.S. occupation and the shape of any eventual Iraqi government will impact the entire region, along with the U.S. role in the Middle East. This paper will analyze the development of the Persian Gulf’s security situation, by means of focusing on the American strategic thinking.

單邊主義;雙重圍堵;權力平衡;民主擴展;意願聯盟

Unilateralism; Dual Containment; Balance of Power; Democratic Expansion; Coalition of the Willing