本文藉由新現實主義、新自由主義以及建構論等三種國際關係理 論的觀點，來檢視兩岸關係的未來。國際關係理論的某些分支，尤其 是新現實主義，認為台灣應該在此際宣佈獨立，然而這種觀點可能造 成誤導。本文特別強調不同的實質與規範結構，而北京與台北領導人 的觀點以及對彼此決策與行動的詮釋，都在這個結構之內。文中同時 也點出國際社會期許大陸與台灣領導人在處理兩岸議題上的「恰當」 表現為何。這些深植於自由派與建構主義觀點的預期指出：假如台北 真想尋求和平統一，甚至是和平地與中國大陸分離，也許可以並應該 再等待一段時間。

This paper examines the future of cross-strait relations by using three major theoretical perspectives on international relations: Neorealism, Neo-liberalism, and Constructivism. Some strands of international relations theory, especially Neo-realism, support the argument that the time is now right for Taipei to make a decisive bid for independence. But this view could be misleading. The paper highlights different material and normative structures within which leaders both in Beijing and Taipei view and interpret each other's decisions and actions. It also highlights the expectations of the international community about what would be regarded as "proper" conduct by the leaders of both mainland and Taiwan in handling cross-strait issues. These expectations, rooted in Liberal and Constructivist perspectives, indicate that Taipei perhaps can and should wait longer if it really seeks either peaceful reunification or even peaceful separation from mainland China.