在李登輝總統提出「兩國論」後，兩岸關係趨於緊張。台北的大 陸決策體系似仍保留若干解釋的空間。至於未來台灣領導人是否依舊 堅持此一主張，國際與兩岸環境是否有利此一主張的繼續存在，凡此 皆充滿了變數。 在「兩國論」之主張提出後，當前兩岸關係有以下幾點值得觀 察： 一、「兩國論」之宣示，旨在確立中華民國 (台灣)為一主權獨立 國家，但卻在國際以及兩岸關係上，造成「一個中國、各自 表述」原則的破解。 二、兩岸關係的發展以及海基、海協兩會的往來，因「兩國論」 之提出而嚴重受阻。 三、在台灣發生集集大地震後，北京已經暫緩對台灣的文攻武 嚇。 四、1999 年 11 月中共與美國達成入會協議，兩岸同時加入世界貿 易組織已進入關鍵階段。中共領導階層可能等待今年3月中旬 台灣產生新領導人後，再進行政治談判，並且處理「三通」 問題，中共對台採取軍事行動的可能性已經降低。 五、美國政府雖然一再宣稱，不主動介入兩岸問題的解決，但跡 象顯示，美國官方與學界部份人士傾向於說服兩岸接受中程協議的政治安排，藉以避免未來可能發生的嚴重軍事、政治 衝突。

Tensions across the Taiwan Strait have been on the rise since President Lee Teng-hui's statehood remarks on July 9,1999,which redefined the Taiwan-Mainland China relationship as "special stateto-state relationship ". Taipei's Mainland China Affairs Council's official interpretation seemed to have changed somewhat after the White House and U.S. State Department expressed grave concern over the matter. Whether Taiwan's new President would insist on the assertion of "special state-to-state relationship " and whether the international environment and cross-strait relations would be receptive to such an assertion depend on a variety of unforeseeable variables. Since the assertion of "special state-to-state relationship" was made, the following observations in regard to the cross-strait relations are worthy of our notice: While President Lee's assertion is meant to declare that Taiwan is an independent sovereignty state, it nevertheless seriously challenges the "One China Principle," which has long been accepted by both sides across the Taiwan Strait and by the international community. The cross-strait relations and the interactions between Strait Exchange Foundation (SEF) and Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) have been forestalled as a result. Out of consideration of not wanting to hurt the feelings of the people on Taiwan, Beijing has decided not to resort to military action against Taiwan for the moment. As long as Taiwan chooses not to amend its Constitution by incorporating the "special state-to-state relationship "or not to declare independence, Beijing would be reluctant to use political or military threats against Taiwan. Beijing considers now is the opportunity for the realization of three direct-links with Taiwan. If Taiwan chooses not to apply the World Trade Organization (WTO) exclusion clauses against Mainland China, the latter would not take any drastic actions against Taiwan. Certain Washington decision makers and American scholars have been inclined to persuade both sides across the Taiwan Strait to accept interim agreements as a means to ease the sovereignty dispute and to prevent the likely outbreaks of political and military conflicts across the Taiwan Strait.