本文利用多個資料來源與主成分分析，建構政治風險指數，評估2003─2012 年中國大陸企業對外直接投資的政治風險分布，並進行國際153 個國家的比較。研究發現，中資企業對外直接投資政治風險指數（OFDIPRI），確實略高於世界其他國家，但自2007 年以後開始大幅下降。整體而言，中資企業OFDIPRI 落在中低政治風險國家的區間，未如過去文獻所言──偏好投資高政治風險國家。究其原因，中國大陸政府愈加重視政治風險，且憑藉其控制能力與兩個外交行動──外援與國際投資協定，努力促成企業OFDIPRI的快速下降。

The aim of this study was to use multiple data sources and principal component analysis to construct a political risk index and then to evaluate the distribution of political risk of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment between 2003 and 2012, and compare across 153 countries. The primary finding is that the OFDI Political Risk Index（OFDIPRI）was indeed higher than other countries, but showed obvious signs of reduction after 2007. Overall, the OFDIPRI of Chinese enterprises fell into lower and middle percentiles among countries, unlike previously thought（Chinese enterprises, in fact, did prefer investment in high political risk countries）. We also concluded that Chinese government’s increasing attention on OFDI political risks as well as the state’s ability to control state-owned enterprises and effective applications of foreign aid and international investment treaties were the important factors that resulted in a rapid decline in Chinese OFDIPRI.

中國大陸、對外直接投資、政治風險、主成分分析

China, Outward Foreign Direct Investment, Political Risk, Principal Component Analysis