根據環球透視機構(Global Insight, GI) 10月最新預測， 2016年全球經濟成長率由2015年之2.7%下降至2.4%，為金融海嘯以來為低水準，全球經濟仍處於「低成長陷阱」（Low-growth trap）與「新平庸」（New mediocre）態勢。反觀國內，臺灣在2000至2014年間歷經網路泡沫、911恐怖攻擊、SARS與2008金融海嘯等情形，平均GDP實質年成長率仍有近4%。然而2015年與2016年卻出現罕見的低成長，連續兩年GDP在1%左右，不經讓人懷疑臺灣經濟是否面臨「結構性轉變」或是「罹患慢性病」。本文將剖析臺灣經濟如何陷入「悶經濟」困境，並回顧2016年重要原物料價格變化與金融情勢，以及展望2017年臺灣經濟的觀察重點與不確定性。

According to the GI's economic forecast published in October 2016, the global economy expanded 2.4%, the slowest pace since the financial crisis. This weak GDP growth number shows that the world is stuck in a ＂new mediocre＂ growth pattern and has still not escaped from the low-growth trap of weak trade, investment, productivity and wages. Similarly, Taiwan has suffered from sluggish market conditions and posted a 0.72% GDP growth rate in 2016, the lowest since 2010. This paper examines why Taiwan's economy has suffered economic contractions for three consecutive quarters and a sharp decrease in exports for 17 consecutive months in 2015 and 2016. A quick overview of raw material prices and Taiwan's financial condition are also provided. Finally, the paper discusses several uncertainties in the outlook for Taiwan's economy in 2017.

經濟成長率;臺灣採購經理人指數;消費者物價指數;原物料價格;金融概況

Real GDP Growth Rate; Taiwan Purchasing Managers' Index; Consumer Price Index; Raw Material Prices; Financial Overview