本文回顧了馬政府執政八年來的主要兩岸政策，發現在北京對台政策的鑲嵌壓力與台灣後發展型體制的轉型壓力之下，馬政府處理兩岸關係的國家能力尤其是基礎能力被弱化，故其更加傾向於運用專制能力，來推動一些存在偏好分歧的兩岸政策，儘管一部分政策達到了既定目標，但國家-社會偏好分歧逐漸擴大，並藉由反服貿學運激化、失控，最終引發了社會制裁。此外，本文結合實證研究發現，用國家能力理論重構了民主國家自主性理論。

This paper applies the theory of state-centrism to explore the role of state capacity in the process by which the state adjust divergent social preferences to maintain or enhance its autonomy. The paper suggests that since 2008, some of the Ma government's attempts to maintain autonomy in the area of Cross-Strait policy by adjusting divergent social preferences succeeded while others failed. The government was successful when it used infrastructural capacity to enhance autonomy and failed when it tried to employ despotic capacity to do so. In the latter cases, preference divergence widened and society sanctioned the state. This study also shows that the particularity of Cross-Strait relations and the transformation of Taiwan's political and economic systems weakened the Ma government's infrastructural capacity in the area of Cross-Strait policy. The article proposes a new model of democratic state autonomy to describe the process by which state capacity influences preference divergence.

國家自主性;國家能力;偏好分歧;兩岸政策;專制能力;基礎能力

State Autonomy; State Capacity; Preference Divergence; Cross-Strait Policy; Despotic Capacity; Infrastructural Capacity