對台灣氣候治理的考察，需要放在長程的社會轉型角度－能源與排碳、產業與治理轉型的三個螺旋鍊運動，進行剖析。從這三個結構性的轉型挑戰，我們可以看到，政府在氣候政策上長期以來的努力與困境，以及公民社會相應的批判與翻轉決策的量能。我們要問的是，是什麼結構性的障礙阻止了治理的轉型，亦即，從亞洲的觀點來看cosmopolitan climate governance，需要分析哪些路徑依賴造成了國家治理、甚至社會轉型的困境，包括發展型國家、威權專家政治、經濟上的高碳結構、褐色能源結構、以及其背後的高碳資本主義論述。本文將指出從最早台灣政府回應1997年京都議定書隔年立即召開的第一次全國能源會議，到2015年9月於COP21之前對全球宣示的INDC，甚至到2016年5月民進黨執政後之能源政策改革保守性，都顯示前述各種路徑依賴之長期、系統性的鎖定效應（locked-in effect）威力。而除了高碳政權對氣候治理轉型的困境之外，在社會端，我們雖看到公眾朝向低碳社會的典範轉移以及各種活躍的反排碳、反空汙、推動綠色能源與公民電廠的活動，但生活在深入鑲嵌的高碳經濟與褐色能源結構下，社會的轉型仍然遲滯，舉步躊躇。

The examination of climate governance in Taiwan requires a long term perspective of social transformation – of the triple helix interaction of energy and carbon emissions, industry, and air pollution control, to dissect them. From the challenges faced during the structural transformation of these three facets, we can see the long term efforts and gridlock that the government has faced towards climate policy, and the corresponding criticisms from civil society and their power to reverse decisions. 

It is worth analyzing how the policy decision-making of high carbon regimes has continued to revolve around and be stuck in the ideology of the brown economy that had been the dominant drive of the developmental state in the past, and even with the dual vertical and horizontal pressures of international climate agreements and internal domestic criticisms and demands, this has not directly resulted in structural shake-ups or reversals. What we have to ask is, what the structural impediments are, that have prevented the transformation of governance, that is, from the Asian perspective of cosmopolitan climate governance , it is necessary to analyze which path dependency has resulted in the quandary of national governance and even of social transformation, including that of the developmental state, the politics of authoritarian regimes, the economy’s high carbon makeup, the brown energy framework, and the ideology of carbon capitalism behind these. This paper will point out that from the Taiwanese government’s earliest response to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and the first national energy conference that was immediately held in the following year, to the global INDCs made previously under the COP21 declarations in September 2015, and even to the conservative nature of the energy policy reform under the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), all these demonstrated the long term reliance of the various aforementioned pathways, and the power of this systematic locking-in effect. Other than the predicaments faced by high carbon regimes over the transformation of climate governance, on the societal front, we have instead seen a paradigm shift in the public's perception towards a low carbon society and the various active environmental movements. However, living under a deeply-embedded high carbon economy and brown energy structure has meant that social transformation has been slow-moving and constrained.

高碳政權;鎖定;褐色經濟與能源;COP21

high carbon regime; lock in; brown economic and energy; COP21